Usman Salis
The euro has slipped back into bearish territory after a short-lived recovery attempt, struggling to hold ground above 1.1620. What we're seeing on the chart is a textbook bearish formation — repeated failures at a key imbalance zone suggest the currency pair isn't ready to reverse just yet. Technical signals are stacking up in favor of the bears, and traders are now watching to see if the pair will push down toward the next liquidity cluster near 1.1550.
Technical Analysis: Rejection from Imbalance Confirms Bearish Control
The 4-hour timeframe shows a clean lower-high pattern, which tells us sellers are still in control. According to trader SIRRILLAH, price recently tested a Fair Value Gap between 1.1650 and 1.1670 — marked in orange on the chart — and that's where buyers hit a wall. Momentum couldn't push through, and what followed was a sharp pullback.
From there, price found temporary support at an Order Block around 1.1620, but that level didn't hold for long. Now the market's hovering just below it, which suggests sellers are gearing up for another leg down. The next logical target? A sell-side liquidity zone sitting near 1.1550, where you'll find a bunch of prior lows. That's the kind of area where price tends to sweep stops and find equilibrium before deciding what's next. As long as EUR/USD stays below the 1.1650 midpoint, the structure stays bearish — and any rally back into that zone is likely to get sold into.
Macro Context: Dollar Strength Weighs on Euro
From a bigger picture standpoint, the dollar's been catching a bid thanks to solid U.S. data and lingering risk-off sentiment. The Fed hasn't shown much appetite for rate cuts anytime soon, and that's keeping the greenback well supported. Over in Europe, growth is sluggish and inflation readings are all over the place, which makes it tough for the ECB to sound hawkish. This policy divergence is one of the main reasons EUR/USD keeps drifting lower. Until something shifts on the macro front — or the technical picture breaks bullish — the path of least resistance looks downward, especially with price staying capped below that FVG.
Key Levels to Monitor
- Resistance zone (Fair Value Gap): 1.1650 – 1.1670
- Order Block support: 1.1620
- Downside target (liquidity zone): 1.1550 – 1.1540
- Bearish bias invalidated above: 1.1670
Path Points Lower Toward 1.1550
The EUR/USD chart is painting a pretty straightforward bearish picture — rejection from a fair value gap, weak support at the order block, and momentum that's clearly tilted to the downside. Unless the pair can reclaim and hold above 1.1650, odds favor another move toward that 1.1550 liquidity pocket. Right now, momentum, structure, and fundamentals are all lined up in favor of the bears. Any bounce from here might just be noise — or a better spot for sellers to reload before the next drop.
Usman Salis
