Artem Voloskovets
⬤ The US Dollar Index (DXY) just broke below a trendline that's been holding it up for roughly 15 years—and timing matters here. With only four days left until the monthly close, the question isn't whether it broke down, but whether it stays down. The chart shows a clean breach of the rising support line that's been in place since right after the 2008 financial crisis.
⬤ This trendline held through Fed rate hikes, QE programs, COVID chaos, and everything in between. Now the DXY is sitting in the high-90s, which used to be a bounce zone. Instead of bouncing, it's trading below the line with the month almost over.
⬤ Month-end closes are what actually count. Price can dip below support intramonth and snap back—happens all the time. But when you close a monthly candle below a 15-year trendline, that's different. That kind of break tends to stick and signal real structural change in the trend.
⬤ The dollar impacts everything: commodities, currencies, risk appetite, global liquidity. If this monthly close confirms the breakdown, it could mean the dollar's long-term uptrend is done. If it doesn't, this becomes just another failed breakdown. Either way, the next four days matter more than usual.
Artem Voloskovets
