Peter Smith
After weeks of steady selling, Oracle shares have hit an important technical milestone. The stock has fully filled the large gap created during its early-September spike—a level traders have been eyeing for months.
The Technical Breakdown
As zerohedge pointed out, now that this long-awaited gap-fill is complete, the pressure is on Oracle to show much more aggressive revenue guidance if it wants to stage a meaningful recovery. The chart shows a clean touch of the gap-support zone, with ORCL settling near $245, down sharply from late-October highs.
The chart tells a clear story of sustained selling pressure:
- Persistent downtrend from late September with consistent lower highs through October and weakening momentum into November
- September gap fully filled at $245 where a large upside gap appeared around Sept 9–10, and Oracle has now retraced all those gains
- Failure to hold intermediate supports in the $270s and $260s, with each breakdown accelerating the sell-off and no strong bullish candles emerging
Gap fills often act as temporary support, but they can also be launching pads for further downside if the fundamentals don't improve.
Why Oracle Is Under Pressure
Despite Oracle's AI-related expansion, cloud revenue growth remains uneven. There's been a broader rotation away from enterprise software toward mega-cap growth leaders and AI hardware plays. Rising capital needs for AI infrastructure are also weighing on margin outlooks, and after an aggressive rally earlier this year, ORCL had priced in some pretty ambitious forward growth. Once that momentum cracked, the correction came fast.
The $245 gap zone is a natural spot for a relief bounce—short-term targets would be $255 or $265 if buyers show up. But medium-term, Oracle's revenue guidance will decide which way this goes. Investors want to see stronger cloud numbers, solid enterprise demand, and better margin visibility. Long-term, the big question is whether Oracle can compete in the AI infrastructure era by landing large-scale enterprise AI clients.
For now, Oracle sits at a critical support level. This area might hold—but without stronger revenue momentum, a sustained recovery could be tough to pull off.
Peter Smith
