Usman Salis
Ethereum (ETH) finds itself at a pivotal moment. After rallying through early 2025, the second-largest cryptocurrency is now retesting critical support around $4,000—a level that once acted as resistance during months of sideways trading. The question now is whether ETH can hold this breakout zone or slip back into its previous range.
Technical Overview: The Breakout Retest
According to technical analyst Crypto Caesar, staying above this level isn't just preferable—it's essential for maintaining bullish momentum.
Ethereum's weekly chart shows a textbook retest scenario. After breaking above multi-year resistance in early 2025, ETH is now consolidating just above that breakout line near $3,950–$4,000. This zone has effectively flipped from resistance to support, and holding it would confirm the breakout's validity.
Here's what the chart is telling us:
- Support at $3,950–$4,000: This is the line in the sand. Former resistance has turned into structural support, and losing it would signal trouble.
- Rejection at $4,650–$4,700 (Weak High): ETH got turned away from this level recently—marked as a "weak high" where sellers have stepped in repeatedly. Breaking above it cleanly would open the door to $5,200 or higher.
- Old Range Below ($2,000–$3,500): If ETH slips back into this zone, it would likely mean an extended correction as buyers regroup.
- Rounded Retest Pattern: The chart shows a curved pullback—a common pattern where price dips to confirm support before continuing higher. If this plays out, it could set up the next leg up.
Market Context: Momentum Meets Caution
Ethereum's technical setup comes at a mixed time for crypto. Bitcoin's consolidation near recent highs has slowed capital rotation into altcoins, while DeFi activity and Layer-2 adoption continue growing. Staking remains strong, reflecting confidence in Ethereum's ecosystem. But macro headwinds—like tightening liquidity and profit-taking—are keeping traders cautious. For ETH to keep climbing, it needs to prove the breakout above $3,500 wasn't a fakeout.
Bullish Case: If Ethereum holds above $3,950–$4,000 and bounces, it could quickly retest $4,600–$4,700. A clean break above that weak high would likely trigger a move toward $5,200–$5,400.
Bearish Case: A weekly close below $3,950 would be the first real sign of weakness. That could push ETH back into the $2,800–$3,200 range, shifting momentum back to sellers and delaying any move to new highs until later in 2025 or 2026.
This is a validation phase for Ethereum. The market has shown strength, but now it's facing the classic post-breakout test. Above $3,950, ETH remains structurally bullish. Below it, things get shaky. How price behaves around this level will likely determine whether we're heading for another breakout leg—or a longer period of consolidation.
Usman Salis
