Saad Ullah
West Texas Intermediate crude oil is back on the move, climbing through the mid-$60s as geopolitical tensions flare up again in the Middle East. Traders are pricing in the possibility of U.S. military action involving Iran, and that's pushing oil higher just like it did last summer. The big question now is whether USOIL can break through the $77.64 ceiling it hit back in June 2025 - or if this rally runs out of steam before getting there.
Geopolitical Tensions Drive February 2026 Rally
USOIL is climbing as market participants react to Middle East developments, particularly the prospect of U.S. strikes in Iran. As WTI Oil Price Analysis: Crude Breaks $65.39, Eyes $68-$69 Level highlighted, crude appears to be "smelling a U.S. strike in Iran," prompting renewed buying interest. This mirrors a similar dynamic from mid-2025 when crude topped at $77.64 following an Israeli strike in Iran.
The TradingView chart shows USOIL trading around $66.36 after spending late 2025 and early 2026 in a lower range. Recent candles reflect a pickup in bullish activity as geopolitical headlines influence sentiment. Market structure over the past year has been characterized by sharp rallies followed by consolidation periods, with multi-month swings evident on longer timeframes.
$77.64 Resistance Level Shapes 2026 Oil Outlook
The defining question is whether USOIL can exceed its prior 2025 high of $77.64 in 2026. A decisive break above that level would extend the current rally and reshape the broader trend narrative. Failure to clear that ceiling could signal limited upside potential and raise the likelihood of a retracement later in the year. Brent Crude Holds Near $72 as Oil Benchmarks Approach Multi-Month Highs in February 2026 provides broader context for the energy market rally.
This setup extends beyond crude prices themselves - oil serves as a barometer of global supply risk and demand expectations, particularly when tied to geopolitical flashpoints. If the current rally fades below key resistance, it may reflect easing risk premiums. However, a breakthrough beyond $77.64 would underscore how elevated geopolitical fears and tight supply narratives continue to drive energy prices worldwide, as explored in WTI Oil Tests Multi-Decade Trendline as Energy Rebound Narrative Builds.
Saad Ullah
