Alex Dudov
Palladium's recent price action is telling a story that technical traders are watching closely. After weeks of sideways movement, the metal is coiling inside a textbook Elliott Wave triangle, testing patience while quietly building the foundation for what could be a significant move higher. With support holding firm and volatility compressing, the setup is taking shape for a potential breakout that could send prices surging more than 50 percent from current levels.
Wave 4 Triangle Holds Key Support at 1,733
Right now, palladium is trading near 1,733, locked inside a Wave 4 consolidation pattern that's been forming over the past several sessions. The 50-day moving average has stepped up as dynamic support, catching dips and keeping the structure intact. This isn't random - it's part of a broader Elliott Wave sequence where Waves 1, 2, 3, and B have already played out. Wave 3 topped around 1,984 before pulling back to the 0.382 retracement level near 1,556, a classic corrective move that set the stage for the current triangle.
The chart shows buyers and sellers reaching equilibrium, with price compressing as it bounces between converging trendlines. As one analyst noted, "The triangle plotted during Wave 4 signals volatility compression as buyers and sellers reach equilibrium ahead of a potential breakout." That compression is exactly what technicians look for before a big move. The long-term upward trendline is still holding underneath, and the fact that dips keep getting bought inside this corrective phase suggests underlying strength.
Projected Wave 5 Target Points Toward 2,712
If palladium breaks out of this triangle to the upside, the Elliott Wave count points toward a Wave 5 target zone near 2,712. That's roughly a 54 percent extension from where price sits now, and it lines up with Fibonacci projections that experienced traders use to map out trend objectives. This isn't just a random number - it's derived from the structure of the previous waves and how they relate to each other mathematically.
The key support behavior at 1,700 has been documented in Palladium Tests Trend Support Near 1,700, showing how critical that level has been for maintaining the bullish framework. Broader precious metals momentum is also worth noting, as outlined in Precious Metals Rally Extended as Base Metals Strengthen, which highlights cross-commodity dynamics that could support palladium's next leg higher.
The setup is clean: consolidation is constructive, moving average support is holding, and the Elliott Wave structure is aligned for a bullish resolution. If palladium sustains support at the 50-day moving average and resolves this compression upside, the projected Wave 5 advance could push well beyond recent highs. On the flip side, losing key structural support would challenge the entire scenario. How price behaves around these levels over the coming sessions will determine whether this bullish roadmap plays out or needs a rewrite.
Alex Dudov
