Peter Smith
After sustained selling pressure, global gold ETF flows have turned positive. As The Kobeissi Letter reported, gold-backed ETFs recorded roughly +9 tonnes of inflows in the week ending April 3 - marking the first inflow since the Iran war began.
The Gold ETF Streak That Finally Broke
The chart highlights a clear sequence of consecutive outflows throughout March, with four straight weeks of negative flows totaling around -88 tonnes. Each weekly bar during this period remained below zero, reflecting persistent capital withdrawals following the outbreak of the Iran war.
That pattern shifts in early April, where the latest weekly flow turns positive. This marks the first break in the downtrend in ETF allocations since late February - aligning directly with the timeline outlined in the source.
Four consecutive weeks of outflows totaling -88 tonnes reversed in a single week - the first break in the downtrend since late February marks a change in investor behavior worth watching.
GLD ETF Posts $6.3B in March Outflows - Worst Month Since 2013 captured the scale of the selling pressure that defined March, providing context for why even a modest +9 tonne inflow carries significance as the first directional reversal in that trend.
A Gold ETF Directional Shift More Than a Size Story
The inflow of approximately +9 tonnes is modest relative to the prior outflows - but the significance lies in the reversal itself rather than the magnitude. ETF flows often reflect shifts in investor positioning, and a move from persistent outflows to inflows can signal a change in sentiment even before a sustained trend develops.
The data confirms a clear sequential shift: four consecutive weeks of outflows, followed by the first positive week since the conflict began. That sequence matters more than the absolute number.
GLD Leads While Silver ETFs Move in Reverse
The source notes that GLD, the largest US gold-backed ETF, added about 7 tonnes - bringing total holdings to 1,054 tonnes, though still below the early March peak of 1,101 tonnes. At the same time, silver-backed ETF flows diverged sharply, with SLV holdings declining by approximately 24 tonnes and approaching levels near the lowest since November.
This contrast highlights a selective move into gold rather than a broad allocation across precious metals - investors are rotating back into gold specifically, not making a generalized precious metals bet.
Global Gold ETF Inflows Reach Record $72 Billion provides the longer-term context for what sustained gold ETF demand can look like at scale - making the current early-stage reversal more legible as a potential starting point rather than an isolated data point. Nippon India Gold ETF Extends Strong Uptrend reinforces how flow-driven accumulation phases in gold ETFs have historically preceded sustained price strength once selling pressure exhausts itself.
The chart does not yet confirm a sustained uptrend in flows - but it clearly shows that selling pressure has paused. Whether this single positive week becomes the start of a rotation back into gold exposure will depend on how flows develop in the weeks ahead.
Peter Smith
