Usman Salis
Oil moved lower after a proposed two-week ceasefire tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz signaled a potential easing of supply disruption risks. As BBC reported, Brent crude fell about 13% to roughly $94.80, while US-traded oil dropped even more - reflecting a sudden unwind of the conflict-driven premium that had been building for weeks.
The Brent Oil Spike That Lost Control
The chart shows a clear uptrend beginning in late February, with Brent climbing from around $70 to peaks near $120. The rally accelerated after the conflict started, with a visible spike in early March as supply concerns intensified.
That move established a sequence of higher highs, with price repeatedly pushing into the $110-$120 range. However, the final leg higher failed to extend meaningfully - hinting at weakening momentum near the top before the reversal arrived.
The final leg higher failed to extend meaningfully - weakening momentum near the top was the first signal that the conflict premium was becoming difficult to sustain.
Brent Oil Breaks $110 After 7% Surge in Short-Term Structure Flip captured the momentum at its strongest point, when the structure still looked like continuation rather than exhaustion - making the speed of the subsequent reversal all the more striking.
A Break That Unwound the Entire Brent Move
The structure shifted abruptly in early April. Price dropped sharply from above $100 and quickly moved toward the $95 area, creating one of the steepest single-session declines on the chart.
The fall cut through the $100 zone, which had previously acted as a key psychological level during the rally. Once that area gave way, the move accelerated - reflecting a fast shift from bullish momentum to liquidation as conflict-premium positions unwound simultaneously.
Once $100 gave way, the move accelerated - a fast shift from bullish momentum to liquidation as conflict-premium positions unwound at the same time.
WTI Tops $96 and Brent Nears $111 as Hormuz Tanker Traffic Collapses to Near Zero shows what the peak of that disruption premium looked like - and how rapidly the same catalyst that drove prices to $111 has now reversed course as ceasefire expectations take hold.
Brent Returns to a Prior Balance Zone Near $95
With price now near $95, the chart shows Brent revisiting a region that previously acted as a consolidation zone during mid-March. This area served as a temporary pause before the rally extended higher - and now the same zone is being tested again after a sharp decline.
Oil Prices Surge as Uptrend Accelerates documented the momentum that carried Brent through this zone on the way up, making it a natural reference point now that price has returned to it from above.
Whether $95 holds or not will define if the market stabilizes or continues adjusting lower. The broader structure still shows prices well above pre-conflict levels near $70 - but the recent move has clearly disrupted the upward momentum, and the market is now in the process of finding where fair value sits once the geopolitical premium is removed.
Usman Salis
