Usman Salis
Nvidia just hit another all-time high, and the AI world is watching closely. Trading at $187.37, the chipmaker's valuation now exceeds $4.5 trillion—a number that's hard to wrap your head around.
The Bull Case Is Still Compelling
Jesse Cohen flagged the move, and it's raising an uncomfortable question: are we witnessing the next tech revolution, or are we watching a bubble inflate in real-time?
It's not hard to see why investors keep piling in. Nvidia's H100 chips and CUDA software are essentially the backbone of modern AI—if you're training large language models or building AI infrastructure, you're probably using Nvidia hardware. Tech giants and cloud providers are ordering GPUs faster than Nvidia can ship them. Demand is real, institutional money is flowing, and the company has become the poster child for the AI revolution. Retail traders and big funds alike see NVDA as the purest play on artificial intelligence.
But the Warning Signs Are There
That 9% premium to fair value isn't trivial. Valuations this stretched require perfect execution and sustained growth, and even a minor stumble could trigger a sharp selloff. The chart shows volatility is already creeping in, with intraday swings hinting at nervousness beneath the surface. If AI adoption slows, competition heats up, or spending cycles turn, Nvidia's stock could correct fast and hard. The same pattern played out in past tech bubbles—momentum works until it doesn't.
Right now, Nvidia sits at the crossroads of belief and reality. If AI keeps scaling at this pace, the valuation might eventually make sense. But if the hype cools or margins compress, this could look a lot like the dot-com era in hindsight. For traders, the momentum is undeniable. For investors, the risk-reward is getting trickier by the day. Either way, Nvidia isn't just a stock anymore—it's a referendum on whether we're in the early innings of a transformation or the late stages of a mania.
Usman Salis
