NIO Stock Signals a Trend Reversal as Momentum Builds

After almost three years stuck in a downtrend, NIO might finally be turning things around. The Chinese EV maker's stock has bounced back from critical support levels and is now showing early signs of a trend reversal.

Technical Overview: From Exhaustion to Early Recovery

Trader MarketMaestro notes that the recent FVG (Fair Value Gap) retest signals renewed buying interest, while a breakout above the CHoCH (Change of Character) resistance could kick off a stronger rally. The chart suggests momentum is building—and investors watching for a turnaround might not have to wait much longer.

NIO's weekly chart tells the story clearly. Since early 2021, the stock has been trapped under a dominant downtrend line, with every rally attempt getting shut down. But things started shifting in mid-2025. A positive divergence appeared between price and RSI momentum—while NIO was making lower lows, momentum was actually rising. That's a textbook sign of bearish exhaustion.

The FVG retest near $5.18 was a key moment. NIO filled that fair value gap, held support, and bounced higher—confirming demand and sparking the current upward move.

The most important zone right now is the CHoCH resistance between $6.50 and $7.00. A clean break and close above this area would confirm a structural shift from bearish to bullish. Here's what traders are watching:

• CHoCH Resistance: $6.50–$7.00 (breakout zone for trend confirmation)
• First Target: $7.60 (prior resistance and volume cluster)
• Extended Target: $11.57 (next major supply level)
• Key Support: $3.95 (bullish structure stays valid above this level)

Momentum Indicators Back the Shift

The RSI is sitting around 72.80—strong but not overbought yet, leaving room to run. Volume sentiment has cooled slightly after the initial rally, suggesting short-term consolidation rather than reversal. The trend strength reading of 9.85% indicates an early-stage uptrend is forming.

The green histogram at the bottom of the chart shows growing buying pressure, while bearish volume is fading. That's a sign of accumulation, not distribution—buyers are stepping in.

Beyond the chart, NIO's story is improving. The company is expanding its battery-swap network, rolling out new models, and pushing into European markets. That said, competition in China is brutal, and NIO still lags behind giants like BYD and Tesla on profitability.

For investors, this breakout attempt could be the early stage of a recovery—but confirmation above the CHoCH zone is crucial to validating a real shift in momentum. If NIO can hold support and break resistance, the technical setup suggests meaningful upside could be ahead.