Artem Voloskovets
After getting hammered for years, NIO is finally catching its breath. The long-term chart backs this up: while NIO has crawled out of its basement, it's got several walls to break through before anyone can call this a real comeback.
What the Chart Is Telling Us
Trader Shaun Trades recently pointed out that "$NIO still has a long way to go"—a sentiment that captures the careful optimism floating around the stock right now. The technical picture paints an interesting story. NIO crashed from over $60 in early 2021 down to barely $6 by late 2024, wiping out nearly 90% of its value. That's brutal by any measure. But over the past year, something shifted. The stock stopped falling and started building a base around the $5–$6 range, which could be the foundation for something better.
Right now, NIO is testing its first real obstacle—resistance around $8–$9. This is where sellers have shown up before, and it's the first hurdle the stock needs to clear. If it manages to break through and hold above $9, the next meaningful target sits between $14 and $16, which is a major supply zone on the chart. The volume profile shows some accumulation near the lows, suggesting long-term investors are quietly building positions, but conviction is still shaky at best.
Why This Won't Be Easy
The Chinese EV market is a war zone. Tesla, BYD, and Li Auto are all fighting for the same customers, and competition is only getting fiercer. NIO has been burning through cash and struggling with thin margins, which means it's had to keep raising money just to stay in the game. And after years of disappointing performance, many investors are sitting on the sidelines, waiting for proof that this company can actually turn things around. Any technical breakout is going to need strong fundamentals to back it up, or it'll likely fizzle out.
Both the chart and the fundamentals line up with what Shaun Trades said: NIO has room to move higher, but real bullish momentum won't kick in until it clears that $14–$16 resistance zone. For now, this looks like a stock trying to rebuild trust one painful step at a time. If you're holding long-term, patience is the name of the game. Keep your eyes on those resistance levels—they'll tell you everything you need to know about whether this recovery has legs.
Artem Voloskovets
