Saad Ullah
⬤ NIO's stock has finally punched through a descending trend channel that had been holding it back for four years. That's a big deal. After breaking above that upper boundary, the price pulled back and retested it from above — which is pretty much exactly what you'd want to see after a clean breakout. The fact that long-term selling pressure appears to be easing, even with macro headwinds still in play, is worth paying attention to.
⬤ Once the breakout happened, NIO completed a textbook ABC corrective pullback — that's Wave 2 in Elliott Wave terms. The pullback bottomed right around the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $4.38, which held up as solid support. Price stabilized there and didn't crack through deeper levels, exactly the kind of behavior you'd expect after a major trend break.
⬤ Here's where it gets interesting. Momentum indicators are starting to turn. RSI is recovering from the lows, and oscillators are showing positive divergence as price tries to build a base — all while NIO stays above that former downtrend channel. That's early-stage momentum lining up with a potential Wave 3 setup.
⬤ Multi-year downtrend breakouts like this don't happen often, and they usually signal a shift in longer-term trend dynamics. With a corrective phase completed at a key Fibonacci level and momentum starting to pick up, the big question now is whether NIO can keep pushing higher — or if macro conditions drag it back down. Watch how price holds around these levels over the coming sessions.
Saad Ullah
