Eseandre Mordi
After an extended period of lackluster returns, GOOGL (GOOG) is back in the spotlight, outperforming the broader market with remarkable momentum. The stock's resurgence reflects a broader shift in investor psychology — from caution to conviction — as fundamentals reassert themselves over sentiment.
A Sudden Turn in Market Momentum
The turnaround didn't happen overnight. Investor Travis Hoium, founder of Asymmetric Investing, captured it perfectly in a recent post, describing the rally as happening "slowly, then all at once." For months, confidence in the stock quietly rebuilt beneath the surface before accelerating into a full-blown surge.
The Fiscal.ai chart tells the story visually. Through most of 2024, GOOG moved in lockstep with the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ). But by early 2025, the lines began to separate. GOOG's trajectory steepened sharply, climbing to a 91.1% total gain by October 2025, compared to QQQ's 60.2%. That divergence signals something important: the market is once again betting on Google's growth story.
Chart Analysis: From Consolidation to Acceleration
The two-year price chart reveals a drawn-out consolidation phase that persisted from late 2023 into early 2025. During that stretch, GOOG and QQQ tracked each other closely, showing little differentiation. Then, around spring 2025, something shifted. GOOG's purple trendline began to rise more aggressively while QQQ's orange line maintained a steadier pace. This separation wasn't random. It reflected institutional money flowing back into the stock, driven by stronger earnings, expanding AI monetization, and tighter operations. The steepening curve shows momentum building — a transition from patient accumulation to confident buying.
What's Driving GOOG's Performance
Several factors are fueling this impressive rebound:
- AI Revenue Growth: Generative AI is now embedded across Search, YouTube, and Cloud, contributing meaningfully to the top line.
- Ad Market Recovery: Digital ad spending has bounced back, reinforcing Google's dominance in search and video.
- Improved Profit Margins: Cost discipline and operational efficiency have boosted profitability.
- Investor Rotation: As hype around speculative AI plays fades, capital is shifting toward established tech giants with steady cash flow — a category where Google excels.
These forces combined to push GOOG ahead of both its peers and the broader tech index, marking a clear return to form.
A Lesson in Patience and Quality Investing
The message from this rally is simple but powerful: buying strong companies at reasonable prices works, even when timing is uncertain. GOOG's path over the past two years proves it. Investors who stayed patient during the flat period are now reaping outsized rewards. This isn't just a recovery — it's a revaluation. The market is repricing Google based on its scale, resilience, and dominant position in critical sectors like AI and digital advertising.
Eseandre Mordi
