Saad Ullah
⬤ The United States gained 64 000 positions on nonfarm payrolls during November, a modest rebound after the 105 000 positions removed in October. The figures show a labour market that has shed most of the speed it once had.
⬤ Measured from 2021 onward, the difference is stark. Monthly increases surpassed 500 000 in 2021 and early 2022 because the economy was roaring back after pandemic lockdowns. From mid-2022 onward that vigour ebbed away. Many months now add roughly the same number of positions that were common in 2018 and 2019 or fewer.
The numbers point to continued weakness in monthly hiring, a reminder of how distant the hiring surge of only two years ago has become.
⬤ During 2023 plus into 2024 the pace of job creation turned uneven. Certain months bring respectable increases. Other months show only slender gains or turn negative. October's loss of 105 000 positions was especially unsettling. November reversed part of that slide - yet a rise of 64 000 positions offers little reassurance.
⬤ Nonfarm payrolls count among the indicators most scrutinised by analysts because they reveal the condition of the labour market and the wider economy. The prolonged softness indicates that firms are trimming hiring plans relative to recent years and that the economy is cooling. Whether the pattern steadies, swings back upward or persists will decide the outlook for the months ahead.
Saad Ullah
