Usman Salis
Orange juice futures have dropped to their lowest point in over three years, capping off a prolonged sell-off that's erased more than half the market's value since its 2024 peak. This sharp reversal marks a significant shift in commodity dynamics as supply concerns finally start to ease.
The Numbers Tell the Story
According to Barchart, Orange juice futures (OJX25) fell to $183.30, dropping over 5% in a single trading session according to Barchart data. It's the weakest level since late 2022 and a stunning turnaround from last year's record prices above $500, when weather problems and crop diseases sent buyers into a panic.
The chart reveals just how dramatic this collapse has been. From the 2024 peak near $500, prices have plunged more than 60%. Futures are now testing the $185 zone—a critical support level that hasn't been touched in over three years. The pattern of lower highs and lower lows shows strong downward momentum, with resistance now forming around the $250–300 range.
What's Behind the Drop?
Better harvest conditions in Florida and Brazil have improved production forecasts, easing the supply crunch that drove last year's price spike. At the same time, cooling inflation has reduced speculative demand across food and commodity markets. But perhaps most importantly, traders who piled into orange juice during last year's rally have been aggressively unwinding their positions, amplifying the downside pressure.
If buyers can defend the $180–185 level, we might see a short-term bounce. But a break below this area could accelerate the decline toward $150–160. For now, the market remains bearish unless new supply shocks or weather risks emerge to change the narrative.
Usman Salis
