Peter Smith
⬤ The Truflation US Inflation Index stood at 2.39 % for the year through 27 November 2025, well below the Bureau of Labor Statistics figure of 3.00 %. This live gauge sits near the Federal Reserve's 2 % goal and rose only 0.02 percentage points from the previous day. The reading falls inside the 1.22 % - 3.04 % band seen this year plus rests near the low end as price pressures keep easing across the economy.
⬤ Inflation is cooling - yet the job market is losing strength giving policymakers two problems right away. Truflation tracks prices only, but weaker payroll numbers show that overall momentum is slowing. Early in 2025 the Fed focused almost wholly on restraining inflation while jobs stayed firm - that picture has now reversed.
The Fed has to act.
⬤ With inflation close to target and employment softening, markets expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates. Prices hover near the 2 % objective while labour data flash warning lights - pressure builds for easier policy. The 0.61-point gap between the official 3.00 % BLS figure but also the live 2.39 % Truflation reading keeps debate alive over which number best reflects real conditions.
⬤ The backdrop points toward a possible policy shift. Inflation keeps cooling and labour-market strength keeps fading - the Fed's stance could move from restrictive to supportive. The alignment of those two key signals explains why talk of rate cuts has left the realm of speculation as well as now commands serious attention among traders and officials.
Peter Smith
