Saad Ullah
● According to recent analysis from The Kobeissi Letter, alternative inflation tracking suggests US consumer prices are climbing faster than official figures indicate. PriceStats, which monitors millions of online retail prices, recorded 2.6% year-over-year inflation in September—the fifth straight monthly increase and a two-year high.
● This trend is putting real pressure on household budgets and business margins. Rising prices for furniture, electronics, and personal care products are eating into purchasing power, which could lead to higher consumer debt and increased strain on small businesses.
● The numbers tell a concerning story. OpenBrand's CPI for Durable and Personal Goods jumped 0.6% month-over-month in September—the biggest gain since June, as highlighted in Bloomberg data. This outpaced the official Bureau of Labor Statistics figures for durable goods, suggesting that traditional measures might be underestimating actual price pressures in retail and manufacturing.
● The combination of PriceStats and OpenBrand data points to a broader acceleration in goods inflation, particularly for personal care products and communication devices.
● Economists are worried this could complicate the Federal Reserve's plans. Higher costs for consumer durables typically mean weaker demand and tighter margins across manufacturing and retail—potentially threatening recent employment and productivity gains. Some analysts believe the Fed may need to slow down rate cuts to prevent inflation from picking up steam again, while others argue for tax incentives to boost domestic production and ease price pressure.
Saad Ullah
