Saad Ullah
The EUR/USD pair continues hovering near 1.1615, reflecting caution in forex markets as traders wait for fresh economic data. After bouncing from 1.1540, the pair has reached 1.1630 where it's hitting resistance from both the 200-period moving average and a horizontal ceiling.
What the Chart Shows
The hourly chart shows a classic symmetrical triangle—a pattern that usually leads to a sharp move in one direction. According to Forex Sinyal Merkezi, a decisive break above 1.1630 or below 1.1600 will likely set the tone for the next leg.
EUR/USD is trapped between 1.1608 support and 1.1630 resistance, forming higher lows and lower highs that define the triangle. This squeeze typically ends with a volatility spike once one side gives way.
The 1.1608 level marks the Point of Control (POC)—a major volume support area where most trading has occurred. Multiple moving averages are converging around current prices, showing the market is in balance mode. Volume is picking up near support, suggesting traders are getting positioned for the breakout. The RSI sits around 58, indicating mild bullish momentum without being overbought. Parabolic SAR dots below price give a short-term bullish signal, while volume delta is positive at +533, meaning buyers have a slight edge. Bollinger Bands are squeezing tighter, which typically precedes a big move.
A break above 1.1630 could propel the pair toward 1.1670–1.1720, aligning with upper Fibonacci levels and the top Bollinger Band. If instead it drops below 1.1600, the next stops are 1.1570 and then 1.1540.
Why the Euro Is Stuck
Macro factors are keeping EUR/USD in limbo. Recent PMI data showed the Eurozone economy losing steam, raising speculation the ECB might cut rates early next year. Meanwhile, strong US GDP and jobs data continue supporting the dollar. US Treasury yields have stabilized after months of climbing, which has taken some pressure off the dollar's rally. The key catalysts ahead are next week's US PCE inflation report and ECB meeting minutes—both could provide the push needed for a breakout.
EUR/USD is coiled tight between 1.1608 and 1.1630, waiting for its next move. Technical indicators lean slightly bullish with volume building near support, but confirmation above 1.1630 is critical before calling it. If buyers can't push through, a drop below 1.1600 could send the pair back toward 1.1570 or lower. With major US inflation data and ECB commentary on deck, the coming sessions should finally give traders the direction they've been waiting for.
Saad Ullah
