Usman Salis
The euro's recent rally against the dollar hit a wall as liquidity dynamics shifted decisively toward sellers. What we're seeing on the hourly chart is a classic liquidity sweep followed by a strong rejection — the kind of price action that catches retail longs off guard while institutional players capitalize on the move. Beyond the technical setup, broader macro forces are at play, with the dollar flexing its muscles amid renewed risk aversion across global markets.
Liquidity Grab at 1.1710 Leads to Controlled Reversal
Trader SIRRILLAH recently closed a 7R position on EUR/USD, noting the pair was trading "inside the 1D +FVG." The chart tells the story clearly: price pushed up into Buy Side Liquidity near 1.1710, swept those stops, then reversed hard within the red Order Block zone. This confirmed a Change of Character and kicked off a bearish impulse that's been playing out methodically since.
The rejection happened right at an earlier CISD level where previous demand flipped to supply. From there, the market dropped in clean fashion toward the Sell Side Liquidity target around 1.1610, exactly as the lower chart section highlights. The green shaded area shows the short trade's range, and price is now hovering around 1.1629–1.1619, right inside that daily Fair Value Gap. This zone often acts as a pause point where price rebalances before making its next significant move.
Technical Context and What's Next
For any meaningful recovery, EUR/USD needs to reclaim the 1.1690–1.1700 zone. Without that, we're likely looking at further downside, potentially toward liquidity pools sitting below 1.1600. The daily FVG is acting as temporary support, but it's also the battleground where bulls and bears are currently squaring off.
Broader Market Pressure
The dollar's strength isn't happening in a vacuum. The Fed's commitment to keeping rates elevated combined with concerns about European economic growth has created a tough environment for the euro. Bond yields and central bank expectations continue to drive volatility across forex markets. Yet even with these macro headwinds, what stands out here is how cleanly the institutional playbook unfolded: sweep the buy stops above resistance, then drive price down to capture sell-side liquidity. It's textbook smart money flow.
Usman Salis
