Peter Smith
The EUR/USD pair continues its struggle against persistent bearish momentum on the 4-hour timeframe. With sellers firmly defending key resistance levels and the US dollar maintaining its strength, the technical landscape suggests further downside potential for the euro against its American counterpart.
Current Technical Picture
As noted by IB-forex trader analysis, the H4 chart reveals clear bearish conditions dominating price action. The pair has consistently failed to break above the 1.1780 Daily Order Level (DOL), establishing this zone as a formidable ceiling for buyers. Market structure shows liquidity grabs occurring within fair value gap zones, confirming that sellers remain firmly in control of the narrative.
The current price sits at 1.1733, positioned between critical technical levels that will determine the next directional move. Immediate support rests at 1.1710 within a near-term FVG zone, while deeper support awaits at 1.1660 should selling pressure intensify.
Market Drivers Behind the Weakness
Several fundamental factors continue weighing on EUR/USD. US dollar strength persists, supported by elevated Treasury yields and the Federal Reserve's hawkish monetary policy stance. Meanwhile, the Eurozone presents a mixed economic picture with sluggish growth momentum and ongoing inflation concerns creating headwinds for the single currency. Risk-off market sentiment further amplifies dollar demand while pressuring the euro.
Trading Strategy
The technical setup favors continued bearish momentum as long as price remains below the 1.1780 resistance threshold. A decisive break under 1.1710 would likely accelerate selling toward the 1.1660 target zone, where buyers might attempt to establish a defensive stance. Any rallies from current levels are expected to face strong resistance, with 1.1780 acting as the primary barrier for bull attempts.
For now, sellers maintain the upper hand, and the path of least resistance points lower until bulls can reclaim the critical 1.1780 level.
Peter Smith
