Usman Salis
⬤ Ethereum's long-term price pattern is forming another four-year market cycle, but this time the setup looks different from 2022. The previous bottom in June 2022 happened early because stocks crashed hard in the first half of that year. This time around, there's no similar stock market meltdown expected in 2026, which means ETH's cycle low will probably arrive on a more normal timeline instead of being rushed by outside forces.
⬤ The monthly chart shows a critical support zone at 1,248—labeled as the first yearly support level (S1)—where the next four-year cycle bottom could form. Right now, Ethereum is trading well above this area, sitting in what looks more like a consolidation phase than a definitive bottom. The chart isn't saying ETH will crash to this level tomorrow, but it does mark 1,248 as the most important downside target if the historical cycle pattern plays out as expected.
⬤ Timing is everything here. The 2022 low came early because of extreme macro pressure, but this cycle appears set to follow a more typical schedule. Based on the monthly structure, October 2026 emerges as the likely window for Ethereum to put in its next major low. History also shows that ETH tends to bottom around the same time as Bitcoin during these big cycle resets, suggesting the two will likely move in sync when the time comes.
⬤ This cycle framework matters beyond just ETH price action because Ethereum sits at the heart of the broader crypto market. If the next cycle low does land near that 1,250 yearly support, it could reshape sentiment, shake up volatility, and shift how capital flows across the entire sector. The key takeaway isn't about short-term price swings—it's about watching for that October window and the 1,250 level as the year unfolds, since those are the two anchors defining Ethereum's long-term cycle trajectory.
Usman Salis
