Sergey Diakov
Long-term investors are keeping a close eye on Dogecoin (DOGE) as its monthly chart reveals a pattern that's historically led to significant price drops. The current structure looks eerily similar to previous major topping cycles, suggesting DOGE might be heading into another prolonged downturn.
Dogecoin Shows Fresh Weakness on the Monthly Timeframe
Trader Tardigrade recently pointed out that Dogecoin could be gearing up for another substantial decline, highlighting a repeating monthly cycle pattern that's played out several times over the past decade.
The chart shows these long distribution arcs and the sharp drops that followed — and right now, DOGE appears to be following that same path once again.
Chart Analysis: A Repeating Macro Pattern
The chart reveals three major distribution cycles (2017, 2021, 2025), each forming a rounded top before prices tumbled. Here's how the pattern unfolded:
2017–2018: A rounded top that ended with a steep decline marked by the first downward arrow. 2021–2022: A bigger, more explosive cycle that also concluded with a deep multi-month selloff. 2025: The current structure looks like a smaller, weaker arc with fading momentum.
The red drop markers on the chart show roughly where selling picked up steam in past cycles — and there's another one near the 2025 rollover. DOGE has clearly formed a lower macro high compared to 2021, along with a rounded downslope that's typical of distribution phases. The failure to reclaim previous major support levels points to a macro downtrend rather than any early accumulation activity. The chart's final green arc projects continued downward movement into 2026, hinting at the possibility of revisiting much lower price levels if momentum doesn't turn around. While this is a schematic projection, it accurately reflects how past cycles behaved.
What's Behind the Bearish Outlook?
DOGE has seen minimal ecosystem development lately, which has dented long-term investor confidence. Meanwhile, retail traders have shifted their attention toward faster-moving meme coins, draining liquidity from Dogecoin. The broader macro uncertainty isn't helping either — risk-off environments tend to hit speculative assets the hardest. From a technical standpoint, the monthly candles show shrinking bodies and declining volatility, classic signs that a trend is running out of steam.
Sergey Diakov
