Peter Smith
⬤ Silver has entered a momentum phase rarely seen in the past decade. The metal recently climbed above $65 per ounce, with its 14-week Relative Strength Index hitting 87—the highest level since 2011, when RSI peaked near 88 during that year's market top.
⬤ What makes this surge unusual isn't just the high RSI reading. Nine weeks earlier, the indicator had already reached 86.8, meaning silver has held extreme momentum levels for an extended stretch rather than just spiking briefly. While RSI above 70 typically signals overbought conditions, silver has historically stayed elevated during major bull runs, suggesting the rally could have more room before exhaustion sets in.
⬤ That historical comparison matters because December 1979 preceded one of silver's most dramatic price surges. The current setup shows RSI holding near extreme levels while prices keep climbing, indicating momentum hasn't decisively peaked despite already significant gains. When long-term RSI stays elevated like this, price trends often extend further than typical technical expectations suggest, though the eventual correction can be sharp once momentum finally fades.
⬤ With silver trading at levels not seen since 2011 and technical indicators echoing patterns that appeared only once in the past 45 years, the metal's behavior could influence sentiment across precious metals and broader commodity markets in the coming weeks.
Peter Smith
