Sergey Diakov
⬤ Silver is currently trading in what looks like a near-vertical climb on the monthly chart, pushing into a macro supply zone that's raising eyebrows among technical traders. The price has shot well above its long-term trend support following an aggressive parabolic move. What's got people talking is that this zone carries serious risk – momentum looks stretched, and price is hovering near the top of its long-term channel.
⬤ If distribution kicks in and sellers start taking control, the chart points to some natural retracement zones where price could settle. The 0.382 to 0.5 Fibonacci levels sit around $39 to $31, which would be considered a standard pullback. A deeper correction toward the 0.618 Fib near $24 is also on the table if things get more aggressive. Historically, silver has dropped anywhere from 63% to 77% after similar vertical runs, so these aren't just theoretical numbers – they're backed by past behavior.
⬤ The key takeaway here is that silver is sitting in what traders call a decision zone, not a chase zone. When an asset gets this extended above its trend support, the risk-reward at current levels gets sketchy if the upside momentum can't keep going. Since we're looking at monthly timeframes, any consolidation or correction that does happen could play out slowly, potentially taking months or even years like we've seen in previous silver cycles.
⬤ Why this matters: silver's rapid rise has caught serious attention across global markets, making it a focal point in the commodities space right now. If price stalls or reverses near this distribution area, it could shift sentiment across precious metals as a whole. On the flip side, if silver keeps pushing higher, it would confirm that the long-term momentum is still alive and well. For now, the vibe is cautious – traders are being reminded to stay aware of where we are in the structure and not get caught chasing at risky extremes.
Sergey Diakov
