Sergey Diakov
⬤ Gold futures (XAUUSD) are trading near the top of a multi-month triangle pattern around $4,240, stuck in a tight consolidation zone while traders wait for the next big move. The chart shows /GC pressing against the upper trend line that's been capping rallies lately. With the 200-day moving average sitting well below current levels, the broader uptrend is still intact—gold just needs a catalyst to break out.
⬤ This consolidation comes after a strong rally that's been going on for months. Price keeps bouncing off the rising lower boundary of the triangle, showing buyers are still defending support. The RSI is hovering around 59, which means momentum is neutral but there's enough strength left in the tank. A clean break above the upper trend line could send gold toward the $4,400 level pretty quickly. The narrowing range we're seeing right now typically leads to a sharp move in one direction or the other.
⬤ If resistance breaks, the next leg higher could target the $5,500 to $6,000 range by spring. The chart doesn't tell us which way gold will ultimately break, but it clearly shows the triangle is maturing and price is camped out near the upper boundary. The pattern shows a market that's taking a breather after solid gains while maintaining a bullish technical setup.
⬤ This matters beyond just gold itself because the metal serves as a real-time read on macro uncertainty, inflation fears, and demand for safe-haven assets. If this uptrend continues, it'll likely impact how traders position themselves across commodities and risk assets. If consolidation drags on, it means the market is still waiting for the right trigger before committing to the next trend.
Sergey Diakov
