Alex Dudov
⬤ A dual-panel chart from TrendSpider comparing Nvidia's recent price action with Cisco's late-90s rally has sparked intense debate across trading communities. The graphic shows both stocks following remarkably similar five-wave patterns, with a "You Are Here" marker suggesting Nvidia might be positioned where Cisco stood right before its 2000 collapse. NVDA's path toward the $590 zone mirrors CSCO's climb past $70 before the historic reversal that wiped out most of its value.
⬤ The comparison raises an uncomfortable question: is the AI rally building toward the same kind of speculative blowoff that defined the dot-com era? While the chart similarities are striking, there's a critical difference. Nvidia sits at the center of a genuine infrastructure buildout, with revenue tied directly to AI compute demand that's accelerating across enterprise, cloud, and commercial deployment. The company dominates the data-center accelerator market with real products solving real problems—unlike many late-90s startups that burned cash without ever generating meaningful revenue.
⬤ Still, speculation is undeniably present in AI-linked stocks, and parabolic moves like Nvidia's historically don't end well. The Cisco chart serves as a warning about what happens when valuations detach from fundamentals, even in transformative technology cycles. Whether NVDA follows a similar path or proves the exception will determine not just one stock's fate, but broader market sentiment toward the entire AI sector. The debate captures the tension between believing in AI's long-term potential and recognizing that even legitimate revolutions can produce dangerous bubbles along the way.
Alex Dudov
