Marina Lyubimova
⬤ December has the best track record of any month for the S&P 500. Since 1928 the index closed higher in 73.2 percent of Decembers - only 26 of the past 97 years ended with a loss for the month.
⬤ Monthly data from 1928 onward confirm the pattern. December delivers an average gain of 1.28 percent, the highest of any month. From 1945 the average rises to about 1.50 percent underscoring late year strength. By contrast September usually posts losses and has a lower success rate.
December stands out with an average gain of 1.28 percent marking it as the most historically favorable month in the annual cycle.
⬤ Sentiment has turned brighter and history provides a useful backdrop. Across the calendar April, July besides December are the most reliable months for gains, while February plus September lag. The index often reaches new highs near year end, though no firm price targets have been set.
⬤ December's long term record offers perspective as the year winds down. Decades of data show high odds of a positive month and solid average returns, factors that may influence short term expectations and how investors position themselves.
Marina Lyubimova
