Saad Ullah
⬤ Japan's 20-year government bond yield spiked to 2.75 percent, hitting an all-time high as the country gears up for a $110 billion stimulus package. The yield closed at 2.745 percent with an intraday peak of 2.750 percent, representing a massive jump in long-dated Japanese debt costs that's turning heads across global markets.
⬤ The chart shows a dramatic multi-year surge that's completely reversed decades of rock-bottom rates. After hovering near zero through most of the 2010s and early 2020s, yields started climbing aggressively in 2023 and 2024 before hitting this new peak in 2025. The move from under 1 percent just a couple years ago to nearly 2.75 percent today shows just how fast things are changing in Japanese fixed income.
⬤ The timing is striking—this yield explosion is happening right as the government plans to deploy $110 billion in stimulus spending. Markets are clearly pricing in higher borrowing costs as Japan ramps up fiscal spending and bond issuance. The breakout to record highs signals that traders are reassessing everything from fiscal policy to long-term economic conditions.
⬤ This matters because Japan's sovereign bond market is one of the world's largest and most watched. A record 20-year yield points to major shifts in how investors view Japanese fiscal policy, funding needs, and long-duration risk. With massive stimulus spending ahead and yields climbing fast, the combination is reshaping conversations around interest rates, currency moves, and global bond market dynamics.
Saad Ullah
