Usman Salis
⬤ The Truflation US Inflation Index currently reads 2.52%—down just 0.02% from the prior reading but still above the 2.5% threshold. For comparison, the official BLS inflation rate is higher at 3.00%. Year-to-date, the index has ranged from a low of 1.22% to a high of 3.04%, putting the current level in the upper-middle zone.
⬤ The chart shows how inflation has climbed from early-year lows near 1.2% to above 2.5% as November approaches. The trend has been a steady rise through summer and fall. Key categories tracked include goods, services, core inflation, and PCE components, with the headline index in blue capturing the overall shift over the past year.
⬤ The Federal Reserve is worried inflation could flare up again, which is why the central bank hasn't rushed to cut rates despite market expectations. With the Truflation index stuck above 2.5%, the Fed's caution makes sense—there's still uncertainty about whether disinflation will stick.
⬤ Why this matters: inflation at these levels shapes what the Fed does next and how markets react. Without a clearer drop toward the Fed's long-term target, rate-cut expectations stay muted—and that ripples across asset pricing, especially in sectors sensitive to inflation and risk appetite.
Usman Salis
