Artem Voloskovets
The U.S. Dollar Index is sitting right on a support line that's held firm since 2011. With everything from Fed policy to global trade in flux, this moment matters more than most.
What the Chart Shows
According to market watchers like Barchart, this isn't just another technical level—it's historically been a springboard for major rallies. The Dollar Index has a rising trendline going back over a decade, and every time it's been tested, something notable happened:
- 2011: The dollar bounced hard off this line and kicked off a multi-year climb
- 2021: Another strong rebound that pushed the index toward 115
- 2025: Right now, it's hovering near 99.25—almost exactly on that same line
So far, this support has held every time. If it breaks, though, that's a different story entirely.
Why It Matters
The dollar isn't just another currency. It moves everything else with it. When the dollar weakens, gold and oil tend to rally. Emerging markets breathe easier because their dollar debts get less painful. And for the U.S., a stronger dollar helps keep imported inflation in check, which matters a lot to the Fed when they're deciding on rates.
Right now, traders across stocks, bonds, commodities, and crypto are all watching this level.
If the dollar holds above 99, we could see it climb back toward 105 or even 110, keeping the long-term uptrend intact. But if it slips below 95 and stays there, that 14-year support is toast. That would likely mark the start of a sustained downturn—the kind that reshapes portfolios and changes how people think about currency risk.
Either way, the next few weeks will tell us a lot about where the dollar—and by extension, global markets—are headed.
Artem Voloskovets
