Usman Salis
⬤ XRP has returned to the upper regression band of its monthly Gaussian Channel — a level that has historically kicked off extended pullbacks. Every prior macro rally was followed by several months of decline after an Upper GC retest, with price eventually finding its footing at the middle regression band before the long-term trend resumed.
⬤ That middle band currently sits near $0.70 — and it happens to overlap with a former resistance zone from 2023–2024 that has never been retested as support. A decisive monthly close below $1.12 would confirm sustained weakness and raise the odds of that move playing out. This kind of support sweep before stabilization is explored further in XRP Tests Multi-Month Support as Wyckoff Pattern Signals Possible Final Sweep, which maps out a final downside leg before trend continuation.
⬤ Broader market conditions will play a big role in how far XRP actually falls. A Bitcoin breakdown below $62,000 — with a potential slide into the lower $50,000s — would likely drag XRP along with it. That kind of fear-driven selling mirrors the dynamics covered in XRP Price Analysis: Fear and Greed Cycles Driving Market Move, where sentiment bottoms have historically aligned with price lows. The downside risk scenario also echoes what's outlined in XRP Price Analysis: Bearish Channel Threatens 40% Drop From Current Levels.
⬤ If the repeating fractal holds, a cycle low could materialize around May or June. The setup is a reminder that XRP doesn't trade in isolation — macro technicals and Bitcoin's trajectory remain just as important as anything happening on XRP's own chart.
Usman Salis
