Marina Lyubimova
⬤ Bitcoin is consolidating around $98,300, a level that's getting serious attention in on-chain analysis as the Short-Term Holder cost basis—basically the average entry price of recent buyers. This zone is acting as a key reference point for how price is behaving right now. The Glassnode chart shows BTC price hugging the short-term holder band pretty closely, which tells you just how important this level is during the current market phase.
⬤ The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Model shows Bitcoin's price is currently sitting right near the central cost basis line, caught between overheated and cooled zones. When BTC stays above this level, recent buyers are generally in profit and the market tends to absorb selling pressure more easily. On the flip side, trading below the short-term holder cost basis has historically lined up with persistent selling, as newer holders get more defensive and cautious.
⬤ Right now, Bitcoin hasn't made a clear move either way from the $98.3K threshold. This looks more like a compression phase than any kind of breakout. Looking at previous cycles on the chart, sustained moves above the short-term holder cost basis usually came after corrective periods and led to trend continuation. But when BTC failed to reclaim this level, it typically meant extended consolidation rather than quick recovery.
⬤ This moment matters because on-chain cost basis levels often shape how traders behave in both spot and derivatives markets. With BTC trading right at the short-term holder average, what happens around $98,300 carries more weight than the broader narratives floating around. Whether Bitcoin can hold above this level will likely influence confidence among recent buyers and help determine if the market shifts from consolidation back into a real trending phase.
Marina Lyubimova
