Peter Smith
⬤ Bitcoin keeps hovering near the top of its recent range, and some market watchers think it's still priced too high. BTC is sitting in the "expensive" band right now—not in an accumulation sweet spot. The weekly chart shows Bitcoin dropped out of the "very expensive" territory but hasn't touched the "likely bottom zone" yet, which sits somewhere in the middle price range.
⬤ The chart breaks down BTC's price into five distinct zones: "extremely unlikely," "unlikely," "likely bottom zone," "expensive," and "very expensive." Right now, Bitcoin's weekly candles are planted firmly in that "expensive" range, meaning we're nowhere near what this analyst considers a good entry point. BTC is still way above the "unlikely" and "extremely unlikely" levels, so it would need a pretty significant drop before anyone could call it historically cheap.
⬤ Bitcoin did fall back from its earlier peak when it was deep in the "very expensive" zone. But even after cooling off, it's still sitting well above that "likely bottom zone"—the area the analyst thinks looks more attractive for building long-term positions. "Bitcoin is currently positioned inside what he calls the 'expensive' band rather than an accumulation or value area," the analysis notes. Nobody's predicting BTC will definitely drop into that zone, but the gap between where we are now and where better value sits is pretty clear.
⬤ Bitcoin stays one of the most-watched risk assets out there, and how it moves around these value zones could shape market sentiment going into 2026. Whether BTC stays stuck in the "expensive" range or drifts down toward the "likely bottom zone" might tell us where serious accumulation could kick back in.
Peter Smith
