Saad Ullah
Gold had a pretty decent start to the week, all things considered. With the U.S. dollar getting stronger and stock markets hitting fresh record highs, you'd expect gold to take a beating. But August gold actually managed to squeeze out a small gain of $0.10, closing at $3,335.90. September silver dropped $0.115 to $38.25.
The big news everyone's talking about is this massive trade deal between the U.S. and EU that dropped over the weekend. President Trump and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen hammered out an agreement that puts 15% tariffs on most EU exports to America, including cars. "This is the biggest deal ever made," Trump said. The EU agreed to buy $750 billion worth of U.S. energy and invest another $600 billion in America. Von der Leyen says it brings "stability" and "predictability."
Gold (XAU) Price Awaits Fed Decision This Week
The real action this week comes from the Federal Reserve. The FOMC meeting starts Tuesday and ends Wednesday with Jerome Powell's press conference. Bloomberg reports that Fed officials want to keep rates steady, but there's growing talk about potential cuts this fall. Powell is apparently under "intense pressure" from Trump to lower rates, but most expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged this week.
Technically, August gold futures bulls still have the near-term advantage, but it's fading. Their next target is closing above the July high of $3,451.70. Bears want to push prices below support at $3,300.00. First resistance sits at $3,350.00, then Friday's high of $3,376.60. Support levels are $3,303.00 and $3,300.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating sits at 6.0.
Silver looks stronger technically with bulls targeting $40.00 and bears eyeing $36.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating is 7.5.
Key outside markets show the dollar index solidly higher, crude oil around $66.0 a barrel, and the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.378%.
Bottom line: Gold is doing well considering everything working against it. The stronger dollar and risk-on mood aren't ideal, but ongoing trade talks and Fed uncertainty are keeping some safe-haven interest alive.
Gold (XAU) Price Gets Boost from China Trade News
There's good news on the China front too. The South China Morning Post reported that the U.S. and China will likely extend their tariff truce for another three months past the August 12 deadline. Trade talks between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng start today in Stockholm.
The risk-on mood is definitely strong right now, which usually isn't great for gold, but the metal is holding up surprisingly well.
Saad Ullah
