Peter Smith
Since early September 2025, Shopify (SHOP) and Etsy (ETSY) have traveled different paths. The game-changer? OpenAI's Instant Checkout feature, which lets merchants sell products right inside ChatGPT conversations. This shift is changing how people find and buy things online, and investors are taking notice.
The Numbers Tell the Story
Etsy has jumped 38.07%, while Shopify has climbed a more modest 5.7%. The difference is striking. Etsy's surge suggests investors believe its curated, niche marketplace is perfectly positioned for AI-powered discovery. Shopify's smaller gain, though still positive, hints that the market wants to see how this plays out across its huge network of merchants before getting too excited.
How It Actually Works
As Schwab Network recently explained, shoppers can now type something like "a durable carry-on under $300" into ChatGPT, and it'll instantly suggest relevant products. Big brands like Glossier, Spanx, Vuori, Away, Stanley 1913, and Steve Madden are already on board. Vanessa Lee, Shopify's VP of Product, put it simply: "People are discovering products in AI conversations, not just through search or ads. This lets our merchants show up naturally in those moments and gives shoppers a way to buy without breaking their flow." It's about meeting customers where they already are, without friction.
The Scale of Opportunity
OpenAI reported 700 million weekly active ChatGPT users in August 2025, up from 500 million in March. That's massive growth. Even if just a small percentage of those users start shopping through ChatGPT, we're talking about significant new revenue potential for both platforms.
What This Means
The market has clearly picked its favorite here—Etsy's nearly 40% rally versus Shopify's single-digit gain speaks volumes. We might be watching the early days of a fundamental shift in commerce, where finding something, getting a recommendation, and buying it all happen in one seamless conversation. For anyone watching the retail space, the takeaway is straightforward: AI isn't just changing how we work anymore. It's changing how we shop.
Peter Smith
