Peter Smith
⬤ Tesla's share price is now parked at a technical crossroads. It has rebounded strongly and is once again bumping into the price level that has stopped every rally since early April. While this test unfolds, the company runs fully driver free rides on public roads in Austin, Texas stoking talk that a Robotaxi service will be announced soon. At the same time California officials have opened a new file that challenges the way Tesla advertises its “Full Self-Driving” package. The stand off is typical for the firm - a headline grabbing product on one side, a regulatory warning on the other.
⬤ On the chart the stock is pressing against the upper $480 area, a price region that has acted as a ceiling since last December. Directly underneath that line sits a thick volume shelf - millions of shares traded near those prices during the past two years - so the area tends to slow any move. The broader direction, however, remains upward. Each recent sell off has stopped at a higher low and the sideways range that trapped price action from October through January has already been broken.
The compression we are seeing just under resistance often resolves with an upward break.
⬤ A daily close above $488 would expose the next major reference - the 1.618 Fibonacci projection that comes in at $658. Along the way the rally will probably pause at $540 and again near $600, two smaller ceilings where profit taking is likely. If the former resistance zone at $480 turns into support on pullbacks, the bullish sequence will be confirmed and the path toward the Fibonacci target will be considered open.
⬤ Tesla's reaction matters well beyond its own ticker. The name has become a shorthand for five overlapping narratives - artificial intelligence software, autonomous transport, humanoid robotics, green power and the next wave of electric vehicles. A clear break higher would feed risk appetite across all of those themes, while a sharp rejection could drag the whole group lower. With both chart tension and regulatory headlines in play, the way Tesla closes this particular week will probably steer sentiment for the wider growth stock complex.
Peter Smith
