Saad Ullah
SpaceX's private-market pricing is undergoing a dramatic repricing, with pre-IPO shares climbing from below $200 to above $700 in just months. As The Kobeissi Letter highlighted, this surge reflects growing expectations that SpaceX could go public at a valuation of $1.75 trillion or higher - potentially marking the largest IPO in history.
The SpaceX Rally That Redefined the Trend
The chart captures a sharp transition from low-volatility accumulation into a near-vertical uptrend. In October 2025, price hovered around $185 before a decisive breakout triggered a powerful expansion phase.
This type of structure suggests a repricing event rather than gradual accumulation - the market is not slowly building a position, it is rapidly adjusting to a new valuation reality.
The move accelerated rapidly, with price surging past $300 and $400 with minimal resistance before momentum carried the rally into the $600-$750 range. Candles show strong continuation rather than hesitation throughout the move - a structure that suggests a repricing event rather than gradual accumulation. The timing aligns directly with IPO rumors in late 2025, which coincided with a 135% surge in December.
SpaceX Pre-IPO Momentum Holds Near the Top of the Range
After the explosive rally, price action shifts into consolidation just below the highs. The chart shows multiple rejections near the $750-$757 zone, while current price stabilizes around the low $730s. The structure remains constructive throughout:
- Higher lows continue to form beneath resistance
- Pullbacks are contained above roughly $650
- No clear breakdown pattern has emerged
This creates a tightening range under resistance - a setup often associated with continuation rather than reversal. The absence of sharp selling pressure suggests that buyers remain active even after the large initial move.
A $1.75T SpaceX Breakout Zone With Little Historical Resistance
With price sitting just below its recent high, the structure leaves limited historical reference points above the $750 area. If that level is cleared decisively, the chart offers little visible resistance - opening the door for further expansion.
The trend has not produced a lower high, which would typically signal weakening momentum. Instead, demand has consistently stepped in at higher levels, keeping the structure intact. SpaceX Eyes Record-Breaking $30B IPO With $1.5T Valuation Target in 2026 outlined the foundational IPO thesis before the secondary market began pricing in the more aggressive $1.75 trillion scenario now reflected in the chart.
Secondary-market pricing is not moving in isolation - it reflects a broader shift in expectations around SpaceX's potential listing and long-term positioning. As long as the structure holds above its rising support and continues pressing against resistance, the trend remains defined by strength rather than exhaustion, suggesting the market is still pricing in the possibility of a historic public debut.
Saad Ullah
