Peter Smith
Nvidia just went through a brutal three-day stretch. The stock fell to $188, down another 3.65%, and the speed of the drop has spooked both AI bulls and the broader tech market. The chart shows a clean, uninterrupted sell-off with no real support in sight yet.
What's Behind the Collapse?
According to The Kobeissi Letter, the chipmaker has erased over $450 billion in market cap since Monday—making this its sharpest decline of the year so far.
Several factors are converging to hammer Nvidia right now:
- AI spending slowdown – After two years of explosive growth, markets are questioning whether data center and hyperscaler investments are cooling off
- Rising competition – AMD's latest AI chips and custom silicon efforts from Big Tech are chipping away at Nvidia's dominance
- Regulatory pressure – Ongoing U.S. export restrictions, especially related to China, are clouding the long-term demand picture
- Stretched valuations – Nvidia came into 2025 priced for perfection, leaving little room for bad news—and now any negative catalyst is getting amplified
Key Levels to Watch
Immediate support sits around $185–$188, with $180 as the next psychological floor. On any bounce, $194 is the first hurdle, and $200 is the big one Nvidia needs to reclaim to break this bearish momentum.
If buyers show up near the $185–$188 zone, we could see a relief rally. But without a strong catalyst—like fresh AI spending data, positive earnings revisions, or regulatory clarity—Nvidia remains vulnerable to more downside. Investors should keep an eye on Big Tech capex announcements and any updates on chip export rules, as either could swing sentiment fast.
Peter Smith
