Saad Ullah
NIO shares have clawed back from brutal summer lows, nearly touching $7.50 before running out of gas. Now the stock's hanging around $6.95, and everyone's waiting for the same thing - September delivery numbers.
Chart Setup: Bulls Losing Control
One trader watching closely is ℍ𝕦𝕘𝕠 𝕊𝕔𝕒, who flagged disappointing weekly deliveries over the past three weeks. The question is simple: can strong monthly figures save the momentum, or are we headed back down to test $6.20?
The technicals tell the story of a rally that's fading fast. NIO rocketed from under $5 in early August to nearly $7.50 last month, but that momentum has stalled hard. Key support sits at $6.20 where the stock consolidated before, while $7.50 is the level bulls need to reclaim. The MACD is flattening out after a strong run, possibly setting up for a bearish cross. Meanwhile, the RSI has cooled from overbought territory, confirming the loss of upward energy. A bearish flag pattern might be forming, and if that breaks down, lower prices are likely.
Why the Stock Is Struggling
Delivery uncertainty is the obvious culprit - until we see September's final numbers, the market's in limbo. But there's more going on. China's EV market is a bloodbath right now, with BYD, Li Auto, and Tesla all slashing prices and flooding the market with new models. Add in rising U.S. Treasury yields and global growth jitters, and you've got a tough environment for speculative stocks like NIO. Still, true believers in EV adoption and NIO's premium brand aren't going anywhere.
This is a data-driven moment. Strong September deliveries could punch NIO back through $7.50 and reignite the rally. Weak numbers probably send it back toward $6.20 or lower. Short-term traders are sitting on their hands, while long-term holders are betting on the multi-year EV story. The next few days will tell us which side was right.
Saad Ullah
