Peter Smith
According to a Deutsche Bank research note, NIO Inc. (NIO) will deliver around 13,000 vehicles in February. The estimate reflects a 60% year-over-year increase but a 6% sequential decline. The bank also provided sales predictions for other major EV players, including Tesla (TSLA), BYD (BYDDY), and Xpeng (XPEV).
NIO (NIO) February Sales Outlook
Deutsche Bank analysts, led by Wang Bin, expect NIO to deliver approximately 13,000 units in February. This includes 8,000 units from its main brand and 5,000 from its Onvo sub-brand. In the last three weeks of February alone, NIO recorded domestic retail sales of 8,200 units.
Dealer feedback suggests that NIO’s total order flow for the month reached 16,000 units, with about 11,000 orders for the main brand and 5,000 for Onvo. To boost sales, NIO introduced a five-year zero-interest financing program with a 20% down payment, an upgrade from January’s three-year financing offer.
Tesla (TSLA) and Xpeng (XPEV) Sales Expectations
Deutsche Bank forecasts Tesla’s China operations to deliver 30,000 units in February, marking an 8% year-over-year decline and the lowest figure in nearly 24 months. Tesla China’s retail sales for the first three weeks of February totaled 21,000 units. Notably, Tesla is clearing out older Model Y inventory ahead of the new-generation Model Y launch, with only 10,000 units of the older model expected to be sold.
Xpeng (XPEV) is projected to deliver approximately 31,000 vehicles, a staggering 580% increase year over year. This includes 16,000 units of the Mona M03 sedan, 8,000 units of the P7+ sedan, and 7,000 units of other models. Domestic sales for Xpeng in the first three weeks of February reached 20,000 units.
BYD (BYDDY) Leads with 340,000 Sales Projection
BYD is expected to report the highest sales volume among Chinese EV manufacturers, with an estimated 340,000 wholesale deliveries in February. This represents a 180% increase from the previous year and a 13% sequential rise. The domestic delivery estimate stands at 205,000 units, up 80% year over year.
Dealer insights indicate that BYD’s order flow reached 310,000 units in February, surpassing its domestic deliveries. The demand surge is attributed to the "God’s Eye C" autonomous-driving version, which remains in limited supply.
Li Auto (LI) and Xiaomi (XIACY) Forecasts
Deutsche Bank projects that Li Auto (LI) will deliver 28,000 units, a 38% year-over-year increase. The company’s domestic retail sales totaled 20,000 units for the first three weeks of February.
Meanwhile, Xiaomi’s (XIACY) EV division is expected to deliver 25,000 vehicles, a 9% increase from last year. Xiaomi EV’s domestic retail sales reached 18,000 units in the first three weeks of February, with dealer feedback suggesting a total order flow of 45,000 units.
Market Implications and Industry Trends
The beginning of the year is traditionally slow for the Chinese automotive industry due to the Lunar New Year holiday, which took place from January 28 to February 4. Despite seasonal trends, NIO and its competitors continue to see strong demand, particularly for new models and financing incentives.
As the EV sector remains competitive, investors will closely watch NIO’s performance in March and beyond. Deutsche Bank’s estimates suggest a mixed picture, with some companies like Xpeng seeing exponential growth, while Tesla and Li Auto face sequential declines.
Peter Smith
