Artem Voloskovets
⬤ Coffee futures have been under serious selling pressure lately after showing a clear reversal on the daily chart. The trouble started with a gravestone doji formation near resistance around 426, which basically signaled that buyers got rejected at higher prices. Things got worse when prices broke down below the 50-day exponential moving average—a level that had been holding things up during the recent climb. Since that breakdown, coffee hasn't been able to get back above that moving average, showing that sellers have taken over.
⬤ That gravestone doji pattern appeared right at the 426 resistance zone, marking a pretty textbook rejection. Once coffee lost the 50 EMA support, it was game over for the bulls. Every attempt to bounce back has fizzled out, with the chart showing a series of lower highs as the market keeps trending down from that resistance area.
⬤ There was a brief moment last Thursday when a hammer candle suggested sellers might be taking a breather. But Friday's action killed that hope—buyers just didn't show up to support the move. "The lack of follow-through indicated that buyers did not commit to the move," highlighting how weak the bounce attempt really was. Instead of building any momentum, prices just stalled out and then resumed falling. Today's continued decline confirms that bounce was nothing more than a fake-out.
⬤ This pattern matters for anyone watching commodities because once coffee establishes a clear trend direction, it tends to run with it. When prices stay stuck below key moving averages like this, it usually keeps the bearish pressure going and makes any recovery attempts pretty tough. Until coffee can actually hold some ground, reclaim those technical levels, and show real buying commitment, the downside momentum will likely keep dominating the near-term picture.
Artem Voloskovets
