Usman Salis
Ethereum might be setting up for another big move. The weekly stochastic RSI just hit deeply oversold levels—exactly where it was before ETH surged 250% in 2023.
What the Chart Is Saying
Analyst Rekt Fencer points out that this indicator has a solid track record: every time it's touched these lows, Ethereum has bounced hard in the months that followed. With ETH hovering around $3,500 after pulling back from $4,800, the technical pieces are falling into place for what could be a powerful rally.
The weekly ETH/USD chart shows some key signals worth paying attention to:
- Stochastic RSI at rock bottom – The indicator is sitting at its lowest level in over a year (around 3.73), which historically marks exhausted selling and the start of a reversal. Last time this happened in late 2023, Ethereum climbed from $1,200 to $4,200—over 250% gains.
- Macro structure still intact – Despite recent weakness, Ethereum continues making higher lows since the 2022 bear market bottom. Each oversold RSI phase has lined up with a cycle low, followed by fresh momentum.
- Support and resistance zones – Strong support sits between $3,200–$2,800, while immediate resistance is at $4,200 (where the last rally stalled). The big test comes at $4,800, the previous high and potential breakout level for the next leg up.
If the RSI starts turning upward from here, it would likely confirm a shift in momentum and pave the way toward those resistance levels.
Why This Setup Matters
The timing lines up with a few important factors. Bitcoin's consolidation near record highs often pushes capital into Ethereum as traders hunt for bigger gains. Ethereum's fundamentals are solid too—Layer-2 networks like Arbitrum, Base, and Optimism keep growing, and on-chain staking activity remains strong. Add in improving macro conditions and easing monetary policy, and you've got a recipe for a potential breakout if the technicals confirm.
Ethereum's RSI is flashing the same signal it did before the last major rally. If the pattern holds, we could be looking at another significant move higher in the coming months.
Usman Salis
