Peter Smith
⬤ USOIL has bounced back from recent lows, forming a higher low on the daily chart and pushing above short-term moving averages. The recovery comes as geopolitical tensions heat up, giving oil bulls something to work with after weeks of struggle. Price action shows crude reclaiming ground it lost during the recent slide, though the bigger picture still looks shaky with bearish moving averages overhead.
⬤ The turnaround started near $56, where buyers finally showed up after a long stretch of weakness. That support level held, and oil pushed higher from there, breaking above the last swing high and flipping the short-term structure. It's not a full trend reversal yet—the longer-term moving averages are still converging and pointing down—but the immediate momentum has clearly shifted.
⬤ Right now, crude is stuck just under $59.60, testing that resistance without committing either way. "The market is absorbing supply while monitoring ongoing geopolitical developments," reflecting how traders are weighing risk against technical levels. Instead of giving back gains, oil has been grinding sideways, which suggests there's enough demand to keep it propped up for now. If $59.60 breaks, the next target sits around $61.00, a level that's acted as a ceiling before.
⬤ This matters beyond just oil charts. Crude prices feed into inflation numbers, drive energy stocks, and shift risk sentiment across markets. When geopolitical uncertainty picks up, oil tends to get jumpy, and this recent bounce shows just how sensitive crude is to those headlines. Whether buyers can actually push through $59.60 will set the tone for the next move and ripple through commodity and energy markets as the geopolitical backdrop keeps evolving.
Peter Smith
