Usman Salis
Oil markets are experiencing significant selling pressure. WTI November '25 futures dropped to $58.80 on Friday, the lowest level since early May. The sharp decline reflects mounting concerns over rising inventories, slowing demand, and technical indicators suggesting further weakness ahead.
Market Overview
As highlighted by Barchart on social media, crude oil fell more than 4.4% intraday, marking a critical milestone. This price action reveals how fragile market sentiment has become as we head into Q4 2025. Since peaking above $80 in June, WTI has been trapped in a steady downtrend, consistently forming lower highs and lower lows.
The chart shows a critical support level at $58.38 now being tested. Short-term resistance sits in the $64–66 range, where prices failed to break higher multiple times in September. The decisive break below $60 signals a bearish technical setup, raising the possibility of further downside if current support doesn't hold.
Key Drivers Behind the Decline
Several factors are weighing on crude prices. Economic slowdowns across Europe and Asia continue dampening consumption forecasts. Rising U.S. inventories have intensified supply concerns, while recent de-escalation in geopolitical conflicts has stripped away risk premiums that previously supported prices. Additionally, a stronger U.S. dollar makes oil more expensive for international buyers, further curbing demand.
What's Next for Traders
The $58–$58.50 zone has become a critical line in the sand. A clean break below this level could push prices toward the mid-$50s, while any meaningful bounce would require a recovery above $62 to suggest stabilization. The next few trading sessions will likely determine whether this is merely a temporary dip or the beginning of a deeper correction.
Crude oil's slide to five-month lows underscores the vulnerability of energy markets amid weak demand and persistent supply pressures. Whether WTI can defend the $58 support area will be crucial for the near-term outlook. If buyers fail to step in, further losses could materialize quickly.
Usman Salis
