Saad Ullah
⬤ The chance that SpaceX will sell shares to the public at a valuation above one trillion dollars has risen sharply. Polymarket traders now price that outcome at 67 %, a jump that shows the market is ever more convinced the debut could belong to the largest in history.
⬤ The figures speak plainly. On 9 December the betting line lurched toward the top bracket and lower ranges lost favour. At present the market assigns about 12 % odds to a valuation between nine hundred billion and one trillion dollars and only 6 % to the eight-hundred-to-nine-hundred-billion band. The chance that no public offering occurs before 2028 sits at 11 %. In short traders treat the listing as imminent.
⬤ The numbers carry special weight for Elon Musk. If SpaceX debuts at one point five trillion dollars, his shares would fetch roughly six hundred twenty five billion lifting his net worth to about nine hundred fifty two billion. At that level Musk would stand close to the first twelve zero fortune on record.
⬤ The event would matter well beyond one fortune. A trillion plus listing would force investors to recalibrate every benchmark for aerospace firms. Starlink keeps adding subscribers besides SpaceX keeps firing off rockets - together the two lines of business have persuaded private backers. If the current odds prove right, the listing will mark a watershed for both the space sector and the tech valuation landscape.
Saad Ullah
