Peter Smith
Silver (XAG/USD) has pushed back above $37.00 thanks to a weaker US Dollar and falling Treasury yields. But don't get too excited - the bearish trend is still very much alive and kicking.
XAG Bulls Hit Wall at $38.00 and $38.50 Resistance
Silver bulls are going to have a tough time getting past $37.95 (old support turned resistance) and especially that broken trendline sitting around $38.50. These levels are like a brick wall for any rally attempt.
The $38.00 psychological level plus the $38.50 technical resistance create a nasty double whammy that could stop this bounce dead in its tracks.
If we drop back below Friday's low at $36.21, it's game over for the bulls. Next stops would be those June lows at $35.34, and if things get really ugly, we could see $34.40 come into play.
Bottom line: Silver's fighting back for now, but the bears are still in the driver's seat. Until we see a clean break above $38.50, this looks like just another correction in an ongoing downtrend.
XAG Price Gets Boost from Weak US Jobs Data
Silver bounced hard from multi-week lows at $36.20 after disappointing US employment numbers hit the market. The bad jobs data got traders thinking the Fed might have to cut rates sooner than expected to help the struggling labor market.
Getting back above $37.00 is nice, but the bigger picture hasn't changed much. Silver's still caught in that nasty downtrend that's been grinding lower for weeks now.
Silver (XAG) Technical Picture Shows Tough Road Ahead
Here's the thing - XAG/USD broke that key ascending trendline last week, which basically killed the bullish run that started back in April. What we're seeing now looks more like a dead cat bounce than the start of something big.
The 4-hour RSI is climbing out of oversold territory, but it's still stuck below that crucial 50 level. That tells you the bears are still calling the shots. Right now, $37.40 is the immediate ceiling to watch. Sure, we could see more upside if US factory orders disappoint, but there are some serious roadblocks ahead.
Peter Smith
