Saad Ullah
Gold can't pick a direction, stuck around $3,325 while everyone waits for the Fed decision. The dollar pulled back slightly, giving gold a tiny boost, but traders are staying cautious before the big announcement.
What's holding gold back? Most people think the Fed will keep rates higher for longer, which isn't great for a non-yielding asset like gold. Plus, trade optimism is making investors less interested in safe-haven plays.
Gold (XAU) Price Awaits Fed Decision with 97% Odds of No Rate Change
The CME FedWatch Tool shows 97% odds the Fed keeps rates at 4.25-4.50%. No surprises expected there. The real action comes from what Fed Chair Powell says afterward – any hints about September cuts could boost gold, while hawkish comments might hurt it.
Job market data isn't helping either. JOLTS showed openings dropped to 7.43 million in June from 7.71 million in May. We've got GDP and PCE inflation data coming this week that could finally get gold moving.
Gold (XAU) Price Technical Picture Shows Caution Needed
The charts look messy. Gold broke below the 100-period moving average on the 4-hour chart, which got bears excited. Technical indicators are negative too. But it bounced off $3,300 (a three-week low), so bears should be careful.
For downside, watch $3,260-3,255 where the 100-day moving average sits. For upside, gold needs to break $3,345 first, then $3,367-3,368. If it really gets going, $3,400 and $3,434-3,435 are the next targets. Break those and we might see a run back to April's $3,500 highs.
Gold's just waiting right now. With the Fed meeting and economic data this week, things could get interesting fast.
Saad Ullah
