Peter Smith
Political approval ratings typically rise and fall with economic conditions, yet recent data reveals a striking anomaly. This comparison is particularly significant given Turkey's economy has been devastated by nearly 500% inflation in just four years, demonstrating how political loyalty can persist despite severe economic hardship.
Key Leaders Compared
A recent observation by G Elliott Morris highlighted that Donald Trump's approval rating essentially matches that of Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan — and trails behind Hungary's Viktor Orbán.
Donald Trump: His approval rating remains in the mid-30s to low-40s range, showing little upward momentum and suggesting a loyal but limited support base.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan: Despite years of runaway inflation, currency collapse, and rising living costs, Erdogan's approval rating sits nearly level with Trump's, reflecting deep-rooted loyalty among his supporters.
Viktor Orbán: The Hungarian prime minister polls higher than both Trump and Erdogan, maintaining political strength even while facing EU scrutiny for democratic backsliding.
The data shows Trump and Erdogan's approval lines clustering tightly together, while Orbán's line remains consistently above them.
Why This Comparison Matters
The similarity between Trump and Erdogan's ratings is noteworthy for several reasons. Both leaders benefit from unwavering base support that often proves resistant to policy failures or economic realities. Each positions himself as a defender of national sovereignty, which resonates strongly with core supporters. Additionally, skepticism toward mainstream media, courts, and global institutions fuels an environment where leader-centered loyalty dominates over traditional measures of performance.
The comparison becomes even more striking when considering that Erdogan governs amid an inflationary crisis that has devastated Turkey's economy, while Trump campaigns in the U.S., where the economy — despite challenges — remains far more resilient.
For investors and political observers, Trump's stagnant approval ratings offer important insights. Like Erdogan, Trump appears to face a ceiling in approval — stable but unable to expand significantly. His electoral chances depend less on winning new supporters and more on mobilizing his existing base and focusing on swing-state dynamics. The comparison to Erdogan suggests that in contemporary politics, cultural and partisan loyalty can outweigh economic performance in determining political support.
Peter Smith
