Saad Ullah
XRP is catching attention again, and for good reason. Back then, the coin bounced from its 50-week simple moving average and took off. Now, in late 2025, XRP is testing that same critical zone—raising the question of whether lightning could strike twice.
The Technical Picture
A chart analysis from STEPH IS CRYPTO reveals a technical pattern that mirrors the exact setup before XRP's massive 1,050% rally in 2021. The weekly chart tells a compelling story. XRP is currently hovering just above its 50-week SMA near $2.45, the same technical level that launched its previous mega-rally. In early 2021, XRP rebounded from this moving average and climbed from around $0.25 to over $3.00—a gain of more than 1,000%. The current setup looks strikingly similar: a pullback into long-term support followed by stabilization.
The $2.40–$2.50 zone is now the level to watch. A strong bounce here could confirm the uptrend is intact and signal the start of another major move. If momentum builds, the next resistance levels sit around $3.50, with extended targets potentially reaching $5.00–$6.00 by mid-2025. This kind of consolidation above the 50-week average has historically preceded strong rallies, especially when altcoins start rotating during broader market cycles.
What's Driving the Potential Comeback
The technical setup is interesting, but the fundamentals add weight to the bullish case. Ripple's legal battles with the SEC are essentially over, and the clarity that XRP isn't a security for secondary trading has restored institutional confidence. Ripple continues expanding its cross-border payment network, particularly in Asia and the Middle East, giving the token real-world utility as liquidity infrastructure for banks and fintech companies.
There's also the broader market dynamic at play. When Bitcoin and major assets consolidate, traders often rotate into altcoins with strong fundamentals that haven't fully participated in the rally yet. XRP fits that description perfectly—it's lagged behind many other coins this cycle, making it a potential catch-up candidate if sentiment shifts.
The Realistic View
Despite the optimism, not everyone is convinced the rally is guaranteed. Macroeconomic factors like interest rates, global liquidity, and regulatory developments could still slow things down or delay any major move into early 2026. But the retest of the 50-week SMA remains significant—it's an inflection point. Either XRP bounces here and resumes its uptrend, or it consolidates longer before attempting another breakout.
If the pattern holds, XRP could be entering one of its most important phases in years. The combination of historical precedent, solid technical structure, and improving fundamentals supports the idea that a significant rally could be brewing. Whether XRP fully repeats its 2021 performance or simply builds a stronger base for the future, the market is watching closely. History doesn't always repeat—but it often rhymes.
Saad Ullah
