Usman Salis
⬤ Silver has shifted into a high-volatility phase, with its 14-day exponential Average True Range (ATR) now sitting at 6%. This represents a clear break from the orderly market conditions that previously prevailed. Daily price movements have more than doubled their three-year average, driven primarily by forced flows, margin pressures, option hedging, and short covering rather than normal supply and demand dynamics.
⬤ In this volatile environment, traditional technical analysis becomes less effective. Stop losses get triggered more easily, and even solid macro perspectives struggle against sudden short-term price jolts. "This doesn't signal the end of silver's bull trend, but short-term trading conviction has become extremely difficult due to the volatility," according to market analysis.
⬤ The ATR surge points to a fundamental change in how silver is trading. Long-term trends may stay on track, but short-term action is increasingly dominated by margin calls, forced liquidations, and hedging moves instead of typical price discovery. This makes technical analysis much harder to rely on right now.
Usman Salis
